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Trump’ s impact on renewable energy
|
Capacity( GW)
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
|
6.1 |
5.6 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
3.3 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
0.4 |
|
|
|
0.6 |
0.7 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
Offshore Wind |
|
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
|
|
Sola
47.9
43.8
|
45.1
42.1
|
46.3
44.8
|
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
|
Previous |
Current |
Previous |
Source: GlobalData
Impact on the renewables net annual additions
The wind and solar PV industries are facing significant challenges under the Trump administration due to the implementation of policies and tariffs that have increased costs, eliminated financial incentives, and created an uncertain policy environment.
Under the Biden administration, GlobalData estimated the offshore wind net annual additions would reach 1GW in 2025 and would grow to 6.1GW by 2030 prior to Trump winning the elections. With Trump’ s policies and tariffs, the offshore wind net annual additions will fall to 0.4GW in 2025 and are estimated to reach only 0.7GW by 2030. With a lesser impact, the onshore wind annual additions are estimated at 10.6GW against the previous estimates of 10.7GW. Likewise, net annual additions for solar PV are expected to fall to 42.7GW by 2030 from the previous forecast of 54.5GW.
Fiscal uncertainty in the wind market
The offshore wind market has been the major target of Trump’ s policies and tariffs since it has been hit the hardest amongst all. With the recent 50 percent tariff hike from the previous 25 percent on steel and aluminum, the wind energy capital expenditure( CAPEX) and the levelized cost of energy( LCOE) is likely to be further escalated. For instance, Dominion Energy’ s 2.6GW Coastal Virginia offshore wind has been impacted by the tariff hike, wherein the capital cost of the project increased to $ 11.2 billion from $ 10.9 billion. Similarly, companies such as Orsted, EDP Renewables, RWE, and Equinor have already expressed concerns regarding tariffs and halting of offshore wind leases.
The US relies on imports of steel and aluminum, including from the EU, to support the construction and operation of offshore wind farms. The cost of aluminum averaged
20